Special author aged cold "ended three quarterly, shares 2,294 home listed company net profit per cent growth 18.78%, overall good, but will its split into Bank and non-bank two large class Hou, 16 home listed Bank profit per cent growth has 32%, and 2,278 home non-bank unit per cent only growth has 9%. holds or concern Bank unit of investors very more, this two years Bank profit fast growth, but shares is steadily retreat. real causes is what? for a angle view, SMEs financing difficult, High debt rate of large enterprises, such as the five power generation group, also burst out comprehensive losses. five power generation group total assets of $ 2.57 trillion in early 2011, leverage 85.75%, total liabilities $ 2.24 trillion. five power generation Group 2010 total profit of $ 22.1 billion, if 1% rise in financing costs this year, its profits were basically all swallowed. ordinary enterprises and banks, in the end is a win-win situation, but also
Is this Xiao He rose of relationship? Bank unit underestimated? is expected to 2011 GDP for Miu Miu Bags Replica 46.5 trillion yuan, per cent growth 17%, deduction prices factors Hou of actual growth for 9%. as table in the display, shares total market value over GDP half, total assets is GDP of twice times. shares overall ROE for 15.3%, over GDP growth. If deduction Bank, and insurance, 12.1% of growth also slightly Super GDP. this while is because listed company of profit ability Miu Miu Bags Replica over non-listed company, On the other and is related to Chinese accounting standards required by the original cost on acquisition, in the context of inflation corresponds to depreciation less false profits. A share of the overall debt ratio as high as 86.83%, where non-bank non-insurance-liability ratio 63.28%. at the same time, operating cash flow multiples only 1.05, total cash flow multiple is 0.72. non-bank non-insurance business operating cash flow multiples only 0.5, the total cash flow is negative.
This description enterprise of funds very tension, chain debts comparison serious, lever partial high, financial risk large. currently non-bank non-insurance enterprise, PE for 20 times times, PB only 2.4 times times, ROE for 12.1%, still does not cheap, and profit also in by quarter fell, increasing does not increased Lee, trend does not good. net interest rate only 5.5%, and future a years inflation, and Yuan appreciation, pressure still exists, profit prospects does not optimistic. instead, Bank unit of PE only 6.3 times times, PB for 1.38 times times, ROE for 21.7%, Qian three quarter of profit growth reached 32%, Fake Mulberry Bags looks valuations very low. but 16 home listed Bank has accounted for to all shares net profit of 47%, and also has up of trend. media reported, China of banking income only accounted for GDP of 7%, comparison Hong Kong, and Singapore and United States, growth space huge. so, Bank unit currently of underestimated State is reasonable, its profit prospects how? growth way Fake Mulberry Bags does not
May continued China of Bank (containing is not listed) total assets over 105 trillion yuan, to 3 a points of income difference to meter, income about for 3.15 trillion yuan (16 home listed Bank income about for 2.2 trillion yuan, income accounted for than 70%, assets accounted for than 68%), accounted for GDP (46.5 trillion yuan) of 6.78%, proportion does not high. but, China of Bank total assets is GDP of 226%, and United States banking (deduction generation holding of securities assets outside) for GDP of 40%, European for 70%. China of Bank income accounted for Bank total assets of proportion for 2.31%, most for income difference income, and many middle business income is disguised of income difference. also of indicators, United States is in 5.5% above, securities investment, and advisory service, non-income difference income accounted for has half. from business Shang for, China of Bank does backward, so, China of Bank revenue and profit, is has huge of growth space? view a see to income method
Accounting of GDP part and the accounted for than situation (see figure). assumptions 2011 years GDP for 46.5 trillion yuan, is enterprise surplus about 5.58 trillion yuan, which banking profit 1.32 trillion yuan (containing is not listed, by has announced of Qian three quarter to projections), non-banking 4.26 trillion yuan. banking income 3.15 trillion yuan, which company business accounted for than 70%, personal business accounted for 30%, is company business income for 2.21 trillion yuan. 2010 insurance profit for 60 billion yuan , Brokers 40 billion yuan, the tobacco industry 100 billion yuan, three barrels of oil moving around $ 300 billion, $ 120 billion and $ 40 billion of the $ 250 billion of the coal industry, wine industry, totals $ 910 billion. 2011, these powerful monopoly profit growth clearly exceeds GDP and ordinary listed company, are expected 2011 annual profits of over $ 1.02 trillion, that is, after deduction of these enterprises
, Other enterprise of total surplus only 3.24 trillion yuan. assumptions GDP continues to maintained 10% growth, other enterprise of surplus also to 10% growth (inflation rate does not effect Enterprise ROE, Buffett 1977 in Shang published of has more demonstration), and Bank continues to maintained 22% growth (by now of ROE level conservative calculation, actually past years profit of growth far Super 22%, because during constantly issuance financing), so 7 years Hou, if first does not considered non-banking of financial spending, The additional surplus of 6.32 trillion yuan (95%). the banking company revenues increased by $ 6.67 trillion (up 302%), that is, non-banking financial expenditures need to pay $ 6.67 trillion more (due to strong such as energy, telecommunications, tobacco and wine monopoly of servicing loans less ignored), so non-bank enterprises in China paid financial expenses net profit-$ 350 billion! That is,
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